How Good is Your Football
If you are serious about winning the football pools then you will be using a proven
football pools system and probably staking through a pools syndicate. This way you will be using football results
analysis to provide performance indicators for the teams, and a list of match results forecasts. Then, with a
syndicate you will be maximising the stake you can place. With the best plan that you can afford, which gives you
the desired balance between coverage and guarantee, you will then be in a position to ensure that you have the best
chance of winning.
With any prediction system
though, it is important to refine your skill and improve your forecast ability. For example, you will may choose to
adjust your forecasts to take account of injuries, team selections and end of season relegation or promotion
battles. To improve your forecast performance, you need to know how well you are doing.
Sure, you can say ‘we won five times this season’, but that is a fairly rough
measure of your betting performance. For others, their ‘bank’ is their measure.
If you really want to do it properly though, then you have to measure your
performance every week, and compare it. That way you can improve it.
How successful are you? Well, in the long run you only need a small edge over
random to win. Do you know what your performance was last week?
Here’s a way to work it out.
Let’s say that your plan last week was a 19,000 line plan. For UK football treble
chance football pools, that would be 19,000 separate entries of 8 draw selections from 49 matches.
The random odds of winning with one line (assuming that there are 8 draws in the
results) would be 1 in 451 million. That’s a big number, but we have 19,000 attempts, which knocks those odds down
to 1 in 24,000. Still a big number, but a difference! That’s still with a random forecast.
Now, what result did you achieve?
Let’s say that there were 8 draws in the results, and your system picked 5 of those
draws. Now, it maybe that those five were not in the same line – it happens. But, the forecast system you used
predicted 5 of the 8 – that’s 63%. Work this out weekly, and compare it.
So, you see there are two parts to this. There is the staking plan where we balance
coverage against guarantee, and there is the efficiency of the forecasting. You pays your money and you takes your
choice when it comes to staking, but the money is wasted unless you are generating forecasts which are better than
random. You only need to get it right a few times a year to cover your stakes and make a profit.
If you are entering the pools with these elements in place, then you are reducing
your odds from 1 in 24,000 (with a 19,000 line plan) down to maybe 1 in 8 or 10, or even lower. With a 51,000 line
plan, you are looking at better than a 1 in 4 chance.
* use a proper forecasting system that works, and
* measure its effectiveness every week
* then stake through a syndicate so that you can afford bigger plans
There is a lot more to being profitable with the football pools. You need to know
when not to do them too, when teams will not be playing to form.
© 2011 Phil Marks. All rights reserved.